미국 2월 소비자 기대지수 대폭 하락

 

다우지수가 갑자기 보합권에 맴돌가 급락하는 조짐을 보이기 시작했는데, 뭔가 있나 싶어 보니 바로 이 소비자기대지수란게 문제였다.

 

23일(현지시간) 블룸버그통신에 따르면 미국의 2월 소비자 기대지수가 2009년 4월 이후 최저치로 하락한 것으로 나타났다. 컨퍼런스보드의 소비자 기대지수는 46을 기록했다. 1월 56.5보다 대폭 하락한 수치이자 당초 전문가 예상치도 밑돈 결과다. 당초 블룸버그통신이 실시한 설문조사에서 전문가들은 55를 기대했다.

전문가들은 고용시장 전망이 여전히 불안한 가운데 소비자 기대지수가 급락한 것으로 보인다고 진단했다. 올해 실업률은 9.5%를 기록할 것으로 보인다는 것이 전문가들의 중론이다.

BNP 파리바 뉴욕지부의 줄리아 코로나도 수석 이코노미스트는 "소비 경기는 불안한 상태로 올 한해를 시작했다"라며 "고용시장이 여전히 지지부진한 가운데 소비 경기는 또 다른 타격을 받을 수 있다"고 분석했다.

 

※ 소비자기대지수 消費者期待指數, consumer confidence index 는 뭔가?

 

현재와 비교하여 6개월 후 소비자들의 기대심리를 나타내는 지표이다. 통계청에서 도시 지역 2,000가구를 대상으로 조사원이 방문하여 경기상황, 생활형편, 소비지출, 내구재소비, 외식오락에 대해 직접 면접법으로 조사하여 매월 발표한다. 100을 기준으로 이를 넘어설 경우 소비를 늘리겠다는 가구가 소비를 줄이겠다는 가구보다 더 많다는 뜻이고, 100 미만은 소비를 줄이겠다는 가구가 더 많다는 의미이다. 소비자기대지수는 통상 분양권시장의 선행지수 역할을 하고 있어 주택시장을 예측하는 단기지표로 활용할 수 있다. 즉 집값 하락하기 1~2개월 앞서 먼저 소비자기대지수가 떨어진다는 것이다.

 

다음은 브룸버그 기사 내용 원문이다.

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than anticipated in February to the lowest level since April 2009 as the outlook for jobs diminished, a sign spending may be slow to gain traction as the economy recovers.

The Conference Board’s confidence index declined to 46, exceeding the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, from a revised 56.5 in January, a report from the New York-based private research group showed today. Concerns about the economy and the labor market pushed an index of current conditions to its lowest in 27 years.

Stocks extended losses and Treasuries gained after the report indicated a lack of job growth and impaired household finances threaten to restrain consumer spending. Without sustained growth in the biggest part of the economy, the expansion may be slow to gain momentum.

“Consumers are having a bumpy start to the year,” Julia Coronado, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, said before the report. “They took another minor hit to their wealth as the stock market took a breather, and labor market conditions are still difficult.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.8 percent to 1,098.69 at 10:14 a.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note rose, pushing down the yield eight basis points to 3.72 percent.

Economists forecast confidence would decrease to 55 from a previously reported 55.9 for January, according to the median of 68 projections in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 50.9 to 59.

Home-Price Index

A separate report showed seasonally adjusted home prices rose in December for a seventh straight month. The S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index of 20 U.S. cities increased 0.3 percent. Compared with December 2008, prices fell 3.1 percent, the smallest year-over-year decline since May 2007.

The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions decreased to 19.4 from 25.2 the prior month.

The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell to 3.6 percent from 4.4 percent, according to the Conference Board. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get increased to 47.7 percent from 46.5 percent.

The gauge of expectations for the next six months decreased to 63.8, the lowest since July 2009, from 77.3 the prior month.

The proportion of people who expect their incomes to increase over the next six months declined to 9.5 percent from 11 percent. The share expecting more jobs in the next six months fell to 13.4 percent from 15.8 percent.

Fed and Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley last week indicated policy makers are more concerned about maintaining growth than they are about immediate inflation threats. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may deliver a similar message to Congress the next two days during his semi-annual report on the economy and interest rates.

The U.S. lost 20,000 jobs last month after a 150,000 decline in December, according to Labor Department data released earlier this month[bn:WBTKR=USURTOT:IND] .

The unemployment [] rate is expected to average 9.8 percent this year, according to the median forecast of a Bloomberg survey taken early this month. Limited hiring may restrain consumer purchases and overall growth.

Stocks have declined this year, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.2 percent after gaining 23 percent in 2009.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will grow 2 percent this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month. That would follow last year’s 0.6 percent decline, the worst showing since 1974.

The world’s largest economy will expand 3 percent this year after shrinking 2.4 percent in 2009, according to the median forecast of economists.

Retail Sales

Retail sales in January rose for a third time in four months, a sign the recovery in spending continued into the new year. Sales last month increased 0.5 percent, the government said Feb. 12.

Some retailers are becoming more optimistic. Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, posted fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates after better-than-forecast sales signaled a recovery in the housing market.

“While the psychological impact of falling home prices and an uncertain employment picture continue to weigh” on consumers, Americans are “gaining the confidence to take on more discretionary projects.” Robert Niblock, Lowe’s chief executive officer, said in a statement Feb. 22. “The worst of the economic cycle is likely behind us.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net.

원문보기 : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRjrwoCWzfqw&pos=1